Research report text

【 Soybean meal 】

The USDA report confirmed that the stock consumption ratio of U.S. beans continued to rise, and due to the sluggish spring crush rhythm of U.S. beans, American farmers lowered the 2023/24 soybean crush forecast, further increasing the inventory level. Pay attention to the planting area report at the end of June, the market on the United States corn to soybean area there are differences, if the increase in planting area is less than expected, may bring new speculation heat to the market. Tax changes in Brazil could make Brazilian soybeans less attractive, boosting demand for U.S. beans.

U.S. soybean yields remain at their best levels for this time of year, but the Midwest is likely to be hot and dry this week. In recent months, the number of imported soybeans to Hong Kong has continued to be large, the probability of oil plant opening has increased, the soybean crush volume has remained high, and the seasonal recovery of soybean meal stocks has shown that the market supply is sufficient, the downstream transaction and delivery sentiment is general, some oil plants are still to urge delivery, urge the implementation of the main, it is expected that the domestic soybean meal shock, Follow up on the weather in the US bean producing areas and the USDA acreage intention report at the end of June and the arrival of soybeans in Hong Kong.

【 Cotton 】

Both inside and outside cotton have bottomed out, avoiding a further decline in the futures price. The recent lack of upward driving themes in the domestic market faces the dual pressure of raw material supply impact and terminal effective demand shortage: Supply on the global overall supply loose pattern has not changed, domestic cotton sales slow, as of June 6, the national sales rate of 80.0%, down 12.4 percentage points, the new cotton per unit yield is expected to be higher, Xinjiang cotton companies spot price sales and base price continued flat, some traders began to base on the pre-sale of new annual cotton resources;

The demand side industry downstream off-season atmosphere is strong, finished product inventory has increased, due to spinning profits have not improved, the boot continues to decline, in May, China's cotton textile industry PMI fell to 38.55%. However, retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and textile goods in May were better than expected, rising 4.4 percent year-on-year. It is expected that the price of Zheng cotton will be revised upward in the near future, but the range is relatively limited.

【 Sugar 】

Zheng sugar back to the 6000 integer level slightly stabilized, the futures price is still weak under the pressure of the average. The pressure on the sugar market comes mainly from maximizing sugar production in Brazil, but the global sugar market is in strong demand, and the International Sugar Organization has raised its annual supply deficit forecast for the 2023/24 season from 700,000 tonnes to 2.9 million tonnes.

Brazil produced 2.7 million tonnes of sugar in the latest two weeks, below market expectations of 2.9 million tonnes and lower than the same period last year. In May 2024, China imported 20,000 tons of sugar, a decrease of 51.8% over the same period last year, and short-term imports are expected to be limited. In May, Guangxi sold 4.1082 million tons of sugar, an increase of 363,800 tons. Next depends on the performance of the consumer season. As temperatures rise, beverage demand will improve significantly, which will reduce the pressure on white sugar stocks. In the later period, with the increase in the amount of sugar arriving in Hong Kong, imported sugar and alternative sources of imported sugar have become variables on the plate.

【 Rubber 】

Shanghai rubber received a small Yang line with a long shadow, and there were signs of stopping the decline, but because the rebound channel was damaged, market confidence still needs to be repaired. After-market output was still affected by unstable weather, and raw material purchase prices remained high. Tight domestic supply continues. In May, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber imports were low, a total of 485,000 tons, with a decline in the same month, a year-on-year decline of 20.9%.

The supply of overseas goods to Hong Kong continued to be less, and the inventory showed a continuous destocking situation, and the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone reached 420,600 tons, declining for the tenth consecutive week. As of June 9, China's natural rubber social inventory of 1.277 million tons, down 1.57% from the previous period. In May, domestic automobile production increased slightly compared with the same month last year, while sales increased slightly compared with the same month last year, and the demand side provided certain support for the price of rubber.